This morning BTC began another push higher, creating a breakout of the 4hr range that can be seen on the chart above. I am being very cautious with this current breakout being a false breakout. I have mentioned that with previous breakouts recently, but the fact is they become increasingly more likely with each push we get.
As it stands, BTC has gone over 8 months without any kind of significant retracement, and additionally has closed the last 6 months in the green. While that could be spun into a narrative of a bullish market, it does not discount the fact that retracements still happen in bullish markets and one is long overdue in the current conditions.
One additional feature of this push higher that I find reasonably untrustworthy, is that it did not create a liquidity trap before moving higher. One of the things I prefer to trade the most are false breakouts, so in a bullish market looking for breaks lower as they happen almost every time before a move higher. What that would’ve looked like for this current BTC move is a break below this range, below this high interest area on the chart below.
This could (and likely will) be spun into a bullish narrative for many people, suggesting that the market is so strong it didn’t get the retracement, but that is up to each person’s discretion on reading the markets. As we continue to not get major pullbacks, these symptoms become more and more important to my trading style, and these are sufficient for me to not be bullish on the current price action.
This morning BTC began another push higher, creating a breakout of the 4hr range that can be seen on the chart above. I am being very cautious with this current breakout being a false breakout. I have mentioned that with previous breakouts recently, but the fact is they become increasingly more likely with each push we get.
As it stands, BTC has gone over 8 months without any kind of significant retracement, and additionally has closed the last 6 months in the green. While that could be spun into a narrative of a bullish market, it does not discount the fact that retracements still happen in bullish markets and one is long overdue in the current conditions.
One additional feature of this push higher that I find reasonably untrustworthy, is that it did not create a liquidity trap before moving higher. One of the things I prefer to trade the most are false breakouts, so in a bullish market looking for breaks lower as they happen almost every time before a move higher. What that would’ve looked like for this current BTC move is a break below this range, below this high interest area on the chart below.
This could (and likely will) be spun into a bullish narrative for many people, suggesting that the market is so strong it didn’t get the retracement, but that is up to each person’s discretion on reading the markets. As we continue to not get major pullbacks, these symptoms become more and more important to my trading style, and these are sufficient for me to not be bullish on the current price action.