Let’s go over some macro market trading ideas and what I am excited for as a market cycle trader.
BTC.D is reaching ranges that it hasn’t seen in over 2 years. So what does this practically mean for the market? BTC.D alone doesn’t tell us if the market is going up or down, it really only tells us that either more money is going into bitcoin than alts or less money is coming out of bitcoin than alts. Ready that sentence carefully because it’s an important relationship to understand.
For the remainder of this, I am going to use a Bitcoin, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3 where TOTAL2 and 3 will represent the altcoins.
One thing to start with on a macro level is thinking about how crypto has been performing since the start of the year. Bitcoin is currently up 86% this year, shown in the chart below.
But we should zoom out and look at where BTC is on a macro level. If we remove all current news/media/noise out of the equation, BTC is putting in it’s first bit of upside since the start of the bear market. And in the history of the crypto markets, BTC has never just ended a macro downtrend and immediately began a macro uptrend. There is also some kind of accumulation and consolidation that happens in between. And that would look something like the orange lines on this chart:
And if we look at TOTAL2, we can see that the entire altcoin market cap is only up 28% for the year, significantly lower than BTC. Additionally, the same market structure is not present on TOTAL2.
And the same thing is found on TOTAL3, except that it has been performing even weaker than the others we have looked at so far.
So if we put all of these things together, we can start to see what we are excited about for macro trading. The things to consider here is what happens to all of the altcoins (TOTAL2 and TOTAL3) when BTC breaks down from the recent uptrend? This is when the premium opportunities to buy into altcoins for the next bull cycle occur.
Let’s go over some macro market trading ideas and what I am excited for as a market cycle trader.
BTC.D is reaching ranges that it hasn’t seen in over 2 years. So what does this practically mean for the market? BTC.D alone doesn’t tell us if the market is going up or down, it really only tells us that either more money is going into bitcoin than alts or less money is coming out of bitcoin than alts. Ready that sentence carefully because it’s an important relationship to understand.
For the remainder of this, I am going to use a Bitcoin, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3 where TOTAL2 and 3 will represent the altcoins.
One thing to start with on a macro level is thinking about how crypto has been performing since the start of the year. Bitcoin is currently up 86% this year, shown in the chart below.
But we should zoom out and look at where BTC is on a macro level. If we remove all current news/media/noise out of the equation, BTC is putting in it’s first bit of upside since the start of the bear market. And in the history of the crypto markets, BTC has never just ended a macro downtrend and immediately began a macro uptrend. There is also some kind of accumulation and consolidation that happens in between. And that would look something like the orange lines on this chart:
And if we look at TOTAL2, we can see that the entire altcoin market cap is only up 28% for the year, significantly lower than BTC. Additionally, the same market structure is not present on TOTAL2.
And the same thing is found on TOTAL3, except that it has been performing even weaker than the others we have looked at so far.
So if we put all of these things together, we can start to see what we are excited about for macro trading. The things to consider here is what happens to all of the altcoins (TOTAL2 and TOTAL3) when BTC breaks down from the recent uptrend? This is when the premium opportunities to buy into altcoins for the next bull cycle occur.
