Now I’m going to share with you one of my simple strategies on how I trade the crypto market in what I call “The Trending Market Bias” Its very simple to understand but takes a lot of patience to put into practice and is more suited to seasoned traders who probably trade more markets than just crypto and is less susceptible to the emotional swings from the volatility.
The Trending Market Bias
October 8th, 2023
This strategy isn’t about catching tops or bottoms, its actually a bias indicator that tells me which side of the fence I should be playing on….. Am I a Bear or am I a Bull?. If I’m a bull in the crypto market, I’m trading and accumulating for SATS. If I’m a bear in the crypto market them I’m trading and accumulating for USD.
Looking at this first chart, the red sections of the ribbon indicates when you should be bearish on crypto and accumulating USD and this will give you more buying power when the market bias finally changes. In the green section its Bull season and you want to be accumulating and trading for SATS.
You will not catch the bottom or top of the market cycles that’s not what this is for. Its to give you a long term bias on which way you should be trading with the market or trend. As an example in a bull market I’m not really looking for short positions, unless I’m trading smaller time frames looking for small moves. The idea of trading with the trend is to reduce the risk factor and find trades that present much higher quality opportunities.
Looking back at the Bitstamp chart all the way back to 2012, there really hasn’t been many times you would have been trading or accumulating for USD.
One thing I believe has hurt a lot of people over the last 12 months, is the introduction to USD Futures trading on Binance. Although some people have had some great success trading USD futures, they have priced them selves out of the market in doing so with out realising it.
There USD port folio has actually dropped almost 30% against the AUD in the last 12 months where as if they where trading for SATS there port folio would have gained by over 1000% by not even placing a single trade…… eeekkkk
To put that into perspective lets do some math and give you an example below. If you had $10,000 AUD and tossed it into Binance futures it would have bought you roughly $5555 USDT at the time. Even with an incredible return of say 100% on your entire account (unlikely sustainable long term, but lets run with it for sh!ts and gigs) from trading that would be roughly $11,000 USD, unfortunately USD has dropped against AUD during that time so now converts to roughly $14,000 AUD… ok $4000 dollar return since you started that’s a 40% port folio increase.. Not bad, not bad at all.
How ever that same $10,000 AUD would have bought roughly 1.375 BTC at the same time, and if you had the same success trading with a 100% return on your port folio (remember you’re a trading god), you would now have roughly 2.75 BTC which is now worth roughly $143,000 AUD at the time of writing this article….. that’s a return of over 1300% in less than 12 months…..
Yes granted highly unlikely anyone buys the bottom and sells the top and its easy to exaggerate these numbers in hindsight, how ever the writing is on the wall, you make your choice ? Remember we like FACTS and DATA