This post was inspired by some discussion in the Skribr discord and wanted to share because it’s good to just play around with charts sometimes and this just might spark someone else to look into something similar.
We will build the chart above step-by-step to show how we got there, but know that this is all based on the idea that the bear and bull markets are based around Bitcoin halvings, which are periodic events.
Alright let’s jump into it, starting with the 2013 market ATH. Started by identifying the bull and bear run highs and lows. Because we are looking back in time and this isn’t live price action, this is easy to identify, like we have below.
We can take the cyclic lines tool from the high to the low to examine if there are any patterns that peak our interest. So here is the same chart with the cyclic lines:
And if we are looking for patterns, we can see that the 2013 ATH was retested and price action took off right at the 3rd time cycle.
Before we go further, I will only be showing the 3rd time cycle and removing the others as the 3rd is our current focus. So for this 2013 bear market we end up with this chart below. Not that this is made using the Trend-Based Fib Time tool with only the 3.0 cycle enabled.
Now let’s go to the next bull-bear cycle in 2017 and do the same thing. Note I have changed the chart to a logarithmic scale and will leave it log-scale for the remainder. If we add the trend-based fib time to this bull-bear cycle we can see that the 3rd cycle shows a very similar story. Price action pushing the previous ATH at the 3rd cycle, and right at that 3rd cycle time fib BTC goes on a full run.
So now we see this pattern is repeating (or at least has repeated). Now let’s go to the current bear market and see what we comes up with. If we draw the same pattern with our existing market structure, we get this:
So what is this saying? Based on this pattern, it would suggest that right around December 2024 we could see Bitcoin back around $69k and likely to soon push for a new ATH.
The major assumptions this pattern makes:
The 3x time cycle will continue to repeat itself as it has in cycles prior.
That the bottom of this market cycle has been printed with BTC reaching $15k in November 2022.
But if this pattern holds true, it looks like we have some time before a new ATH is hit, but also that mid-late 2024 will be exciting as we begin the ramp back up toward 70k and higher.
And for completeness, if we zoom out with the chart altogether, we can see how these cycles stack up against one another.
This post was inspired by some discussion in the Skribr discord and wanted to share because it’s good to just play around with charts sometimes and this just might spark someone else to look into something similar.
We will build the chart above step-by-step to show how we got there, but know that this is all based on the idea that the bear and bull markets are based around Bitcoin halvings, which are periodic events.
Alright let’s jump into it, starting with the 2013 market ATH. Started by identifying the bull and bear run highs and lows. Because we are looking back in time and this isn’t live price action, this is easy to identify, like we have below.
We can take the cyclic lines tool from the high to the low to examine if there are any patterns that peak our interest. So here is the same chart with the cyclic lines:
And if we are looking for patterns, we can see that the 2013 ATH was retested and price action took off right at the 3rd time cycle.
Before we go further, I will only be showing the 3rd time cycle and removing the others as the 3rd is our current focus. So for this 2013 bear market we end up with this chart below. Not that this is made using the Trend-Based Fib Time tool with only the 3.0 cycle enabled.
Now let’s go to the next bull-bear cycle in 2017 and do the same thing. Note I have changed the chart to a logarithmic scale and will leave it log-scale for the remainder. If we add the trend-based fib time to this bull-bear cycle we can see that the 3rd cycle shows a very similar story. Price action pushing the previous ATH at the 3rd cycle, and right at that 3rd cycle time fib BTC goes on a full run.
So now we see this pattern is repeating (or at least has repeated). Now let’s go to the current bear market and see what we comes up with. If we draw the same pattern with our existing market structure, we get this:
So what is this saying? Based on this pattern, it would suggest that right around December 2024 we could see Bitcoin back around $69k and likely to soon push for a new ATH.
The major assumptions this pattern makes:
But if this pattern holds true, it looks like we have some time before a new ATH is hit, but also that mid-late 2024 will be exciting as we begin the ramp back up toward 70k and higher.
And for completeness, if we zoom out with the chart altogether, we can see how these cycles stack up against one another.
